Resumo Este artigo analisa a importância dos atrasos portuários para a competitividade da indústria de transformação no Brasil. Com base em estimativas recentes sobre o custo diário dos atrasos comerciais e em bases de dados do Banco Mundial e do GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project), revela a magnitude destas barreiras sob a forma de seus equivalentes ad valorem. Em seguida, por meio de simulações em equilíbrio geral, estima o impacto da melhoria dos processos aduaneiros sobre o desempenho da indústria de transformação no Brasil, sob diferentes cenários. Os resultados obtidos ressaltam o caráter estratégico da facilitação do comércio para a economia Brasileira, em particular sua indústria de transformação e sua inclusão como item relevante para a agenda de crescimento de longo prazo do país.

Abstract This article evaluates the importance of delays at customs for the competitiveness of the transformation industry in Brazil. Based on recent estimations of one-day costs of delays for trade as well as in databases of the World Bank and GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) it reveals the magnitude of the time barriers under its ad valorem equivalent form. Next, through general equilibrium simulations, this paper estimates the impacts of streamlining customs procedures over the performance of the transformation industry in Brazil, under different scenarios. Simulation results highlight the strategic character of trade facilitation reforms for the Brazilian economy, particularly for its transformation industry, and the priority of its inclusion as a relevant topic in the long-term growth national agenda.

Abstract This article explores new tools for the ex-ante analysis of PTAs using large scale CGE models. The traditional impact analysis based on tariff cuts and gross trade performance is then extended to incorporate new features of the ongoing globalization process, such as non-tariff barriers (NTBs) and the so-called trade in valueadded. Several methodological as well as conceptual issues are then readdressed, including the proper use of estimated ad-valorem equivalents of NTBs as inputs in perfect competition CGE models as well as the very concept of a “preferential trade partner” in a world where nearly 65% of global exports correspond to trade in intermediates. The article concentrates its impact analysis on the Brazilian economy-providing an overview of its trade policy over the last decades-and the likely consequences of a hypothetical PTA involving Mercosur and China.

Este artigo estima os impactos das medidas TBT/SPS sobre as exportações brasileiras, baseado na literatura recente de modelos gravitacionais. Um modelo de seleção de Heckman é proposto - com fundamentos teóricos no modelo de firmas heterogêneas de Melitz - que destaca a relevância dos fluxos nulos de comércio, assim como da heterogeneidade das firmas, dois fatores usualmente omitidos em especificações convencionais. Nós mostramos que ambas as margens, intensiva e extensiva, das exportações brasileiras são, em média, negativamente afetadas pelas TBTs e SPSs. Ademais, contribuímos para a literatura empírica provendo ampla evidência no nível setorial para as exportações domésticas. Encontramos que medidas TBT/SPS, embora predominantemente prejudiciais, podem estimular as exportações em vários setores da economia Brasileira.

This article estimates the effects of TBT/SPS measures on Brazilian exports, based on the recent literature of gravity models. A Heckman selection model - theoretically grounded on the seminal Melitz model of heterogeneous firms - highlights the role played by zero trade flows as well as firm heterogeneity for estimations using gravity equations, two factors usually omitted in standard specifications. We show that both extensive and intensive margins of Brazilian exports are, on average, negatively affected by pre-existing TBT and SPS measures. Moreover, we contribute to the empirical literature by providing comprehensive evidence of the sectoral effects of such measures over domestic exports. We find that TBT/SPS measures - though predominantly harmful - can foster exports in several sectors of the Brazilian economy.